Shortly before five this afternoon, Gretchen rang my desk telephone and let me know that my sister-in-law was asking to speak to me about an extremely urgent matter. Fortunately, I was winding up a meeting with a client and didn’t have anything booked for five o’clock. But I guess waiting eight minutes must have seemed like waiting eight hours to Katje, who was in a complete tizzy when she finally got through to me.
Katje: Tom! I have terrible news! Your brother’s like, totally lost his freaking mind!
Tom: Given that the definition of news, Katje, is “that which has happened lately,” how is that news?
Katje: I’m not talking about Rob being like, you know, eccentric, okay, Tom? I’m talking about him behaving like a completely paranoid lunatic!
Tom: Really? How so?
Katje: I went in to work early today, so I was back home at like, four-thirty, and Jason’s there, and he tells me his Dad never even went to work today.
Tom: Did your son say why Rob Roy didn’t go in? Is he sick, for instance?
Katje: No, he said Rob got out of bed and read the news on his Web browser, just like he does every morning before going in to work, you know, while he’s drinking a quad espresso and smoking a cigarette…
Tom: A cigarette? I thought Rob quit smoking last August.
Katje: He did – but watching our 401(k) accounts utterly tank for months finally got to him and he started again, during the holidays.
Tom: Oh, I see. So, okay, he’s drinking some java before going in to the office to program some Java, toking on a coffin nail, reading the news in his browser, and then, without warning, he suddenly goes bananas?
Katje: That’s what Jason told me.
Tom: And where is Rob now?
Katje: Out buying stuff.
Tom: What kind of stuff?
Katje: He didn’t tell Jason what he was going to purchase. He just said “I can’t go in to work today, I’ve got to go out and buy things – right now!”
Tom: My kid brother Rob Roy on a shopping spree? All right, now I’m convinced – for him, that definitely counts as absolutely deranged behavior. Hold on while I call him up on his Blackberry and put the three of us in conference mode here on my land line.
Katje: Okay. Go ahead and call him.
Rob: Hello, Tom? Where are you? Why are you calling me?
Tom: Hi, Rob. I’m at my office downtown. I have Katje here in conference call mode.
Rob: Oh. Hi, babe.
Katje: Don’t you give me that “hi, babe” stuff, Rob Roy Martini! Our son just told me you went out shopping today instead of going to work! What the hell do you think you’re doing?
Rob: Preparing for the immediate, impending and catastrophic collapse of the US Dollar, that’s what!
Katje: By going on a shopping spree?
Tom: Uh, Rob…
Rob: Yeah?
Tom: What exactly, are you out there buying?
Rob: All kinds of stuff – dehydrated rations, ammunition, a cross bow, cross bow darts, a flexible-fuel electric generator, first-aid supplies, gold coins, platinum wire, silver…
Katje: [Expletive]! How the [expletive] are you paying for all that [expletive], you [expletive] maniac?
Rob: I’m charging it all.
Katje: Charging it? Are you [expletive] crazy?
Rob: Crazy like a fox, you mean! In a few weeks, credit card debt will be a joke!
Katje: Listen, [expletive], our credit rating already is!
Tom: Um, Rob?
Rob: Yeah?
Tom: What makes you think the value of the US Dollar is headed down the proverbial drain?
Rob: Oh, come on, Tom! You’re the big-time, inside-the-Beltway, know-it-all consultant! You tell me!
Tom: No, seriously, I can’t imagine…
Rob: [Expletive] it, Tom! The [expletive] Chinese! The Chinese!
Tom: Well, granted, I know the Chinese aren’t exactly a bunch of choir boys and flower girls, Rob, but I hadn’t heard that they were planning an invasion.
Rob: An invasion? [Expletive] that! How totally twentieth century of you, Tom! Why should they bother to invade us if they can topple the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency and replace it with IMF Special Drawing Rights Units based on the Yuan?
Tom: Oh, boy…
Katje: Tom! What the [expletive] is he raving about?
Tom: Well, ah… the Yuan is the Chinese monetary exchange unit, currently worth about fifteen US cents…
Rob: Currently! That’s the key word there, Tom – currently! There was a time when the Swiss Franc was worth fifteen US cents, but now, it’s worth nearly a dollar!
Tom: But that took decades.
Rob: Maybe so, but this time, with the Chinese, we’ll be lucky if it takes six months! And if the Dollar ceases to function as the world’s reserve currency, there will be massive flight to the Euro, the Yen, the Pound and the Yuan, after which, the US economy will completely implode!
Katje: What? I thought it already did [expletive] implode!
Tom: Ah, not technically…
Katje: We’ve got massive unemployment, stock prices in free fall, a real estate market that’s under water, millions facing evictions, the government printing trillions to buy up worthless toxic fantasy assets made up by [expletive] holes… Jesus [expletive] Christ, Tom! What, technically, has to happen before somebody like you will agree that the economy has [expletive] completely imploded?
Tom: Well, if, for example, the US Dollar were to cease functioning as the world reserve currency and be replaced by…
Rob: Which is exactly what the [expletive] I’m talking about!
Tom: But that won’t happen.
Rob: Why not?
Tom: Because the Chinese are holding over a trillion US dollars that they got from us.
Rob: So?
Tom: So therefore, it would cost the Chinese over a trillion dollars to destroy America.
Rob: Really? How much money has America spent destroying Iraq?
Tom: Oh, about a trillion dollars.
Katje: Uh, Tom, is it possible that maybe I’m wrong and Rob isn’t acting insane?
Tom: I’d say, if you think about global macroeconomic and international financial issues without the requisite degree of sophistication, on any given day you can scare yourself silly. You two both know where modern money, including the Dollar, comes from, I presume?
Katje: The Bureau of Engraving and Printing?
Rob: No, no, no! That’s not what he means! Bills and coins just represent wealth! Money comes from the government’s ability to declare a piece of paper or a slug of aluminum to be legal tender for all debts public and private.
Tom: Actually, money gets created when bankers make loans.
Katje: What, out of nothing?
Rob: From thin air?
Tom: Poof! Just so. Now, think about it – how scary is that?
Rob: I’d say that if you’re not making it up, that scares the [expletive] [expletive] out of me.
Katje: Me, too.
Tom: Well, it’s true, and it’s been true all of our lives, but we don’t see people heading for the hills stocked up to live off the land and revert to barter because of it, now do we?
Rob: No, I guess not. But the Chinese are talking about adopting what they call a “super-sovereign reserve currency.” I’ll grant you, Tom, that it’s pretty [expletive] scary to think about people like the loan officer down at our local First Virginia Bank branch creating the money Katje and I work our [expletive] off for when he writes loans – to illegal aliens so they can buy a house and a car they will never be able to afford, probably. But the thought of some guys in Beijing deciding the value of the American money he creates writing those loans is ten times as frightening, as far as I’m concerned.
Tom: Exactly where are you right now, Rob?
Rob: I’m at the Wal-Mart in Fair Lakes Shopping Center.
Tom: And why are you there?
Rob: To buy canned goods, jerky, toilet paper, drinking water, batteries, sleeping bags, Jesus, Tom, you name it, they have it at Wal-Mart.
Tom: Got any of those items in your shopping cart yet?
Rob: Sure. I’ve been here about half an hour.
Tom: Pick one out at random.
Rob: Okay.
Tom: What is it?
Rob: A pair of water-resistant hiking boots – my size. I tried them on first, of course. Nice fit.
Tom: Look at the label inside the boot. What does it say?
Rob: Oh, [expletive]!
Tom: Come on, Rob, out with it! What does it say?
Rob: [Expletive] made in [expletive] China! [Expletive] it! This [expletive] totally [expletive] sucks!
Tom: So – you’re preparing for an economic and societal apocalypse you contend will be precipitated by the Chinese, and doing so by purchasing goods made in China…
Katje:… that will send more US dollars there for them to put into their foreign currency reserves, right, Tom?
Tom: Precisely. And in doing so, you give them even greater resources and leverage to establish their proposed replacement for the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Rob: Jesus [expletive] Christ! I’m [expletive] myself!
Tom: At least you’re not alone. Americans have been buying the rope with which they will eventually hang themselves from the Chinese for quite a while.
Katje: [Expletive], Tom, what the [expletive] has been going on?
Tom: It’s called globalization.
Katje: Globalization? So, it’s like the world turned into the global village, and the Americans turned out to be the [expletive] global village idiots!
Rob: Hey, it’s more complicated than that…
Katje: No, it’s [expletive] not; and do you know what you’re going to be doing this Saturday?
Rob: What?
Katje: Returning all the [expletive] you charged on our credit cards today, that’s what!
Rob: Katje? Hello? Hello?
Tom: I think she hung up.
Rob: Damn.
Tom: Better do what she says, bro. ‘Cause if there’s one thing scarier than fiat money, international banking or a Chinese conspiracy to replace the Dollar as the world reserve currency, it’s your wife when she’s [expletive] off.
Rob: I hear you talking. I guess I better put this stuff back, then…
Tom: No! Just let go of the shopping cart and walk out of the Wal-Mart, okay?
Rob: Let go… of the… shopping cart?
Tom: Right. Then just walk out of the store.
Rob: [Expletive], sure, of course! Why didn’t I think of that?
Tom: Two things to bear in mind, bro – you’re not alone, and it’s not your fault. Just let go and walk out.
Rob: Okay, I’ve let go.
Tom: Good work. Now, head for the nearest exit.
Rob: I’m… I’m approaching the door. Oh, my God! They have five pound jars of peanut butter for eighty nine cents!
Tom: And do you know where they’re from? China! Now, keep your eyes on the exit!
Rob: Right, okay, almost there… I’m out, Tom. I’m out!
Tom: Well done. Can you see your car from where you are now?
Rob: Yeah.
Tom: I want you to walk over there to your car, get in and drive away. Can you do that for me, bro?
Rob: I can, Tom. I’m sure I can. Thanks. I can take it from here.
Tom: I know you can, bro. We all can.
Rob: Yes, we can. ‘Bye.