Karzai’s Circus Under the Big Top Potential Big Flop

Khus Dihugami Dadamizo, Special International Policy Emissary of His Excellency President Hamid Karzai for the Embassy of Afghanistan to the United States of America entered my office this morning with a desultory nod in my direction, then made a bee line for the rest room, bringing his attaché case in there with him.  Twenty minutes into his consultation appointment he emerged, pupils pinpointed, and collapsed onto the couch in front of the picture window for, let us say, a period of personal meditation – or, perhaps, a short nap.
Fifteen minutes after that, he spoke.  “Ah, there you are, my friend Tom.  Do you recall why I am here?”
“For a policy consultation,” I responded.  “Or at least, that would be my best guess.”
“Really?” Dadamizo mused, staring off into space, his eyes focused on something invisible located somewhere between the coffee table and the book case.  “And what do you guess that policy consultation is… about?”
“Well,” I extemporized, “given the recent murder of former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani by a suicide bomber; the Istanbul Declaration on Afghanistan earlier this month; President Karzai’s surprise announcement that he intends to convene a ‘traditional’ loya jirga starting this Wednesday; and the Taliban declaring that they have stolen the security plans for it yesterday, I’d say it’s a pretty good bet you’re here to ask for advice on how the Afghan government can get NATO in general and the Americans in particular to keep their troops in Afghanistan while maintaining plausible deniability about having done so with your own people.”
“Why yes…” he nodded… and nodded… and nodded, “I do believe that…. is, in fact… the… reason… I was sent here.” 
“Okay,” I pressed on, “in that case, the first thing I have to know is, what’s the deal with the Rabbani assassination?”
“Excuse me?” Dadamizo played dumb with a sly smile.  “As reported in the media, former president Rabbani was seeking to attend a meeting with members of the Taliban in order to negotiate the terms for their re-integration into Afghan society, dependent, of course, on their agreeing to lay down their arms, to cease hostilities against the central government, and, to initiate good-faith participation in the established political processes as defined in the Constitution of Afghanistan.” 
“In other words,” I surmised, “Karzai set him up.”
“I’m afraid,” he disingenuously persisted, “I don’t quite follow.”
“Under that Afghan Constitution you were talking about,” I dryly explained, “Karzai can’t serve another term as president.  However, while Rabbani had, in fact, served as president of Afghanistan from 1992 until 1996, that was under a different national constitution.  Therefore Rabbani would be eligible to serve as president again under the new constitution.  Ergo, Karzai allowed two Taliban fanatics, one of whom had a bomb in his turban, to visit him.” 
“Oh, all right,” Dadamizo sighed, “I suppose you could put it that way.  But it was Karzai himself who afterwards gave Rabbani the official title ‘Martyr of Peace to the Afghan People’ and also delivered a very touching speech in Rabbani’s posthumous honor.”
“A bomb in the turban,” I remarked.  “Where do you suppose the Taliban got that idea?”
“The word on the street in Kabul is,” Dadamizo replied, “they got it from that famous Danish cartoon which depicted the Prophet Mohammed – Peace Be Unto Him…”
“… and All Blessings and Honor, Also…” I interjected.
“… Allah be Praised,” Dadamizo continued, “… with a bomb in his turban.”
“The principle objection to the drawing, though, is that it was blasphemous,” I observed.  “I can’t help but wonder, would it not be a blasphemy to imitate the content of a blasphemous drawing?”
“That,” Dadamizo mused, “is a question for the mullahs and imams to argue.  I would point out, however, that the Taliban who put the bomb in his turban was not the Prophet Mohammed – Peace Be Upon Him…”
“… and All Blessings and Honor, Also…” I added.
“… Allah be Praised,” Dadamizo completed.  “Nor did the suicide bomber ever claim to be the Prophet Mohammed – Peace Be Upon Him…
“And All Blessings and Honor, Also…” I chimed in.
“… Allah be Praised,” Dadamizo echoed.  “While the charges of blasphemy concerning the Danish cartoon were directed against it being a picture of the Prophet Mohammed – Peace Be Upon Him…”
“… and All Blessings and Honor, Also…” I intoned.
“… Allah be Praised,” Dadamizo chanted back at me.  “And, most significantly, the charges of blasphemy were not directed against the cartoon being a picture of a fellow with a bomb in his turban.  In fact, although I am neither a mullah nor an imam, it would seem to me that emulating such a drawing would not, in itself, constitute blasphemy.  In fact, I don’t see how it could be blasphemy because if it were, then all that the infidels – no offense – would have to do is draw all kinds of blasphemous pictures of the Prophet Mohammed – Peace Be Upon Him…”
“… and All Blessings and Honor, Also…” I murmured.  
“… Allah be Praised,” Dadamizo proclaimed.  “Such pictures, with bombs everywhere – in the shoes, the belly, the armpits, the crotch and so forth, until there would be no place for a Taliban to put a bomb.  No, now that – obviously – would never do.”
“Very well,” I suggested, “let’s move on to the Istanbul Declaration, then.  In it, Afghanistan’s neighbors – including Pakistan, India and China – signed a joint agreement to respect the sovereignty of your country and pledged to work toward its security and stability.  Furthermore, they ‘endorsed the principles that need to guide reconciliation, including renouncing violence, splitting with terrorists, respect for the Afghan constitution, human and women’s rights; and, they recognized the importance of a long-term international support to the Afghan national security forces,’ as I recall our State Department put it.  What’s the problem with that?”
“You only need,” Dadamizo insisted, “to… how do you say it?  Ah yes… you need only to ‘read between the lines’ in those statements and declarations to understand that all of them – including the United States – can’t wait for NATO to leave!  Then they can all watch and laugh while Afghanistan goes straight down the sewer pipe!”
“Really?” I asked, repaying my guest’s previous display of gratuitous ersatz obtuseness with one of my own.  “Why in the world would they want to do that?”
“Pakistan,” he asserted, “wants another Pakistan next door – not us.  China wants a weak, chaotic state they can move in on and take our minerals.  India wants a disorganized political unit, wallowing in chaos, that will destabilize Pakistan so they can finally annex Jammu and Kashmir.  The Uzbeks, the Tajiks and the Turkmen all want to incorporate the regions of northern Afghanistan where their people are ethnic minorities.  The Europeans in NATO want to do business with whoever comes out on top.  And the Americans – they despise us because they spent hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives on what they think is nothing but a bunch of corrupt criminals posing as a national government.”   
“Quite right,” I agreed.  “So, in reaction, President Karzai decided to convene a loya jirga?”
“I really can’t say,” Dadamizo objected, “what President’s Karzai’s motives are.”
“But we can extrapolate them fairly well,” I suggested.  “First, President Karzai lures… ahem… invites… every village headman, petty warlord, tribal chieftain, local elected political hack, opium kingpin, major arms dealer, top regional smuggler, big-time human trafficker and Muslim religious leader in Afghanistan to sit in the middle of Kabul in a huge tent the Germans gave you and decide how long they think NATO and the Americans should keep their twenty-first century armies and air forces in President Karzai’s filthy, ignorant, backward, raggedy-butt seventh-century country.  Next, he leaks the security plans for the meeting to the Taliban, who promptly take credit for it and start threatening everyone Karzai invited with certain death, should they dare to attend.  Then, while the ones who are stupid enough to show up anyway are squatting around running their yaps, the Taliban come in right on cue and massacre a bunch of them.  Karzai uses the incident as an excuse to declare a state of emergency and thereby stay in power indefinitely, and subsequently employs it as leverage to get NATO and the Americans to stay in Afghanistan until hell freezes over, if not six months afterwards.”
“It appears,” Dadamizo mused, “that you are giving President Karzai credit for far more intelligence, cunning and guile than he actually has.  First of all, the Taliban definitely tricked Rabbani into allowing himself to be assassinated.  And as for the loya jirga, that was an act of desperation on Karzai’s part, I’m afraid, and not very well executed in most respects, either.  The security plan, for example, was actually supposed to be kept secret.  But, thanks to the… what is your word?  Um… Byzantine, is the term you use, I believe… thanks to the Byzantine nature of the Afghan security apparatus, the plan had to be distributed to so many recipients that it was a virtual certainty one of them would send a copy to the Taliban.  It turned out, however, even that point became moot, because in the end, somebody posted a copy of it on the Internet.”
“In that case,” I advised, “my first recommendation would be that President Karzai simply cancel the loya jirga.”
“That option is not,” Dadamizo shook his head, “politically feasible.  President Karzai would lose face.”
“Then, for God’s sake,” I counseled, “don’t hold the damn thing outside in a huge tent crammed with two thousand and thirty screaming Afghan bumpkins, because they’ll all be sitting ducks for Taliban rocket-propelled grenades.  Move the loya jirga inside the Presidential Palace.”
“We can’t do that,” Dadamizo protested, “because there’s simply not enough room in there.  Do you suppose NATO might let us use their headquarters in Kabul?”
“Not likely,” I cautioned, “since the Taliban launched a suicide attack on it in September – one that nearly succeeded, as a matter of fact.”
“Oh, yes,” Dadamizo acknowledged.  “I forgot about that.  Could they meet at an American military base somewhere near Kabul?”
“There’s no way,” I assessed, “that the Pentagon would let a motley horde of Afghans like the loya jirga into one of their bases through the front gate.  What if something – unfortunate happened?  The Joint Chiefs of Staff would never hear the end of it from Congress, the media, bereaved military relatives and Ron Paul.  But you know, something just occurred to me.  What if Afghan intelligence operatives working for the Khadamat-e Etela’at-e Dawlati posed as Taliban and started sending out death threats to all the people Karzai invited to the loya jirga?  What if everybody who was supposed to attend got, say, twenty or thirty death threats?”
“What,” Dadamizo inquired, incredulous, “are you saying?”
“Basically,” I explained, “it’s this: what if they gave a loya jirga and nobody came?”
“Huh?” Dadamizo’s jaw dropped about an inch.
“On the one hand,” I elaborated, “Karzai could say he called a traditional loya jirga – whatever that means – and score political points for having done so, while on the other hand, nobody would show up, making it impossible for the Taliban to get into the headlines with a high-profile bloodbath, while still allowing them to take credit for scaring everybody off.  That way, both Karzai and the Taliban could claim victory, but nobody would die!”
Nobody would die?” Dadamizo gaped at me in disbelief. 
“That’s right!” I exclaimed, “nobody would die!”
“Nobody at all?” Dadamizo implored
“Right – nobody!” I exclaimed.
“[Expletive]!  Now that’s going too far!” Dadamizo sputtered.  “What the hell are you trying to do, Collins – take all the fun out of it?”
“Ah, not exactly,” I replied, somewhat nonplussed.
“Well,” Dadamizo huffed with obvious indignation, “I certainly hope not!  Now excuse me,” he muttered as he rose from the couch, headed for the rest room again, “I’ll be back shortly.”